AI Expected to Elevate Global Trade by 2040
(MENAFN) The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned on Wednesday that artificial intelligence (AI) could significantly elevate global trade, with projections showing a potential 34-37% increase by 2040. Additionally, AI is expected to drive a 12-13% growth in global GDP over the same period, according to the WTO’s 2025 World Trade Report, its flagship publication.
The report emphasized the crucial role of trade in facilitating the global adoption of AI by ensuring access to essential AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors, raw materials, and intermediate inputs. In 2023, trade in these products amounted to $2.3 trillion globally.
However, the WTO cautioned that AI could deepen digital inequalities if proactive measures are not taken. Without significant investment and coordinated policy frameworks, the benefits of AI could remain concentrated, leaving certain regions and economies behind.
"AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven," said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in her foreword to the report.
Okonjo-Iweala also stressed the importance of aligning trade, investment, and policy strategies to ensure that AI can spur growth across all economies.
The report highlighted the growing restrictions on AI-related goods, noting a sharp increase in quantitative restrictions—from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024. This trend underscores the need for transparent and predictable trade policies to foster greater AI collaboration.
The WTO called for enhanced international cooperation, particularly in the realm of AI and trade, to ensure that AI development benefits all nations. It concluded that with the right frameworks in place, AI could unlock new opportunities and strengthen the multilateral trading system, leading to inclusive growth.
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